Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.032916 0.037542 0.042618 0.048608 0.055490 0.063159 0.072363
2024-12-29 0.026302 0.032700 0.040380 0.050303 0.062824 0.078151 0.098414
2025-01-05 0.021415 0.028186 0.036809 0.048649 0.064562 0.085322 0.114646
2025-01-12 0.018306 0.025232 0.034490 0.047847 0.066755 0.092757 0.131562
2025-01-19 0.015613 0.022379 0.031801 0.045983 0.066973 0.097178 0.144454
2025-01-26 0.014516 0.021570 0.031771 0.047741 0.072373 0.109356 0.169889
2025-02-02 0.013591 0.020868 0.031760 0.049434 0.077753 0.121964 0.197388
2025-02-09 0.012789 0.020239 0.031750 0.051062 0.083117 0.135021 0.227079
2025-02-16 0.011680 0.018994 0.030627 0.050741 0.085219 0.142938 0.249023
2025-02-23 0.010841 0.018091 0.029941 0.051026 0.088298 0.152714 0.275231
2025-03-02 0.009929 0.016970 0.028772 0.050340 0.089570 0.159419 0.296598
2025-03-09 0.009411 0.016467 0.028591 0.051339 0.093904 0.171965 0.330248
2025-03-16 0.008671 0.015521 0.027578 0.050790 0.095438 0.179719 0.356062
2025-03-23 0.008331 0.015264 0.027774 0.052501 0.101436 0.196619 0.402363
2025-03-30 0.007558 0.014132 0.026254 0.050775 0.100533 0.199900 0.420959
2025-04-06 0.006982 0.013317 0.025248 0.049935 0.101280 0.206511 0.447368
2025-04-13 0.006332 0.012301 0.023764 0.047987 0.099526 0.207737 0.462068
2025-04-20 0.006170 0.012229 0.024117 0.049824 0.105915 0.226860 0.519591
2025-04-27 0.006008 0.012141 0.024427 0.051596 0.112341 0.246770 0.581609
2025-05-04 0.005847 0.012039 0.024696 0.053299 0.118790 0.267440 0.648254
2025-05-11 0.005505 0.011529 0.024067 0.052963 0.120566 0.277585 0.690264
2025-05-18 0.005247 0.011174 0.023736 0.053261 0.123843 0.291601 0.743994
2025-05-25 0.004923 0.010651 0.022994 0.052544 0.124621 0.299683 0.783324